{"id":60258,"date":"2025-06-05T12:50:09","date_gmt":"2025-06-05T02:50:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tomgrimshaw.com\/tomsblog\/?p=60258"},"modified":"2025-06-05T12:50:09","modified_gmt":"2025-06-05T02:50:09","slug":"marilyn-vos-savant-and-the-monty-hall-problem","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tomgrimshaw.com\/tomsblog\/?p=60258","title":{"rendered":"Marilyn Vos Savant And The Monty Hall Problem"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Marilyn<\/p>\n

\n
This woman holds the highest recorded IQ ever: an astonishing 228. Far surpassing Einstein (160-190), Hawking (160), and Musk (155). Yet, despite her brilliance, she faced ridicule for her response to a seemingly simple problem.<\/div>\n
But she saw what no one else could.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
<\/div>\n
Here\u2019s her story:<\/div>\n
Marilyn Vos Savant was far from an ordinary child.<\/div>\n
By the age of 10, she had:<\/div>\n
\u2022 Memorized entire books<\/div>\n
\u2022 Read all 24 volumes of the Encyclopedia Britannica<\/div>\n
\u2022 Achieved the highest recorded IQ of 228<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
She seemed destined for a life of genius.<\/div>\n
But reality took a different turn.<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
\u201cNo one paid much attention to me\u2014mostly because I was a girl. And I accepted that,\u201d Marilyn Vos Savant once said.<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
She attended a regular public school, left Washington University after two years to help run her parents’ business, and seemed destined for an ordinary life.<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
But in 1985, everything changed.<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
The Guinness Book of World Records listed her as having the “Highest IQ” ever recorded: 228.<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
Suddenly, Marilyn was thrust into the spotlight:<\/div>\n
\u2022 Featured on the covers of New York Magazine and Parade Magazine<\/div>\n
\u2022 Guest on Late Night with David Letterman<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
But she couldn\u2019t have anticipated what lay ahead.<\/div>\n
The Rise and the Question<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
Marilyn joined Parade Magazine to write the iconic “Ask Marilyn” column\u2014a dream for someone with a passion for writing.<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
Yet, this dream turned into a nightmare with a single question in September 1990.<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
The Monty Hall Problem<\/div>\n
Named after Monty Hall, the host of Let\u2019s Make a Deal, the question went like this:<\/div>\n
You\u2019re on a game show.<\/div>\n
There are 3 doors.<\/div>\n
\u2022 1 door hides a car.<\/div>\n
\u2022 The other 2 hide goats.<\/div>\n
You choose a door. The host opens another door, revealing a goat.<\/div>\n
Should you switch doors?<\/div>\n
Marilyn\u2019s answer: \u201cYes, you should switch.\u201d<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
The backlash was overwhelming. She received over 10,000 letters, including nearly 1,000 from PhDs, insisting she was wrong:<\/div>\n
\u2022 \u201cYou are the goat!\u201d<\/div>\n
\u2022 \u201cYou blew it, and you blew it big!\u201d<\/div>\n
\u2022 \u201cMaybe women look at math problems differently than men.\u201d<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
But was she wrong?<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
The Math Behind the Answer<\/div>\n
Consider the two possible scenarios:<\/div>\n
You pick the car (1\/3 chance):<\/div>\n
\u2022 If you switch, you lose.<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
You pick a goat (2\/3 chance):<\/div>\n
\u2022 Monty reveals the other goat.<\/div>\n
\u2022 If you switch, you win.<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
Switching gives you a 2\/3 chance of winning.<\/div>\n
Eventually, her answer was proven correct.<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
Vindication<\/div>\n
MIT ran computer simulations confirming her logic.<\/div>\n
MythBusters tested it and reached the same conclusion.<\/div>\n
Some academics even apologized.<\/div>\n
So why did so many fail to see the truth?<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
The Reasons People Got It Wrong<\/div>\n
\u2022 They “reset” the scenario instead of recognizing the shifting probabilities.<\/div>\n
\u2022 The simplicity of 3 doors obscured the underlying math.<\/div>\n
\u2022 Many assumed each remaining door had a 50% chance.<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
Marilyn\u2019s View<\/div>\n
Marilyn blamed the compulsory schooling system for discouraging independent thinking. She argued that it:<\/div>\n
\u2022 Creates passive learners<\/div>\n
\u2022 Stifles exploration<\/div>\n
\u2022 Hinders critical thinking<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
A Blessing and a Burden<\/div>\n
Marilyn admits that her intellect often feels isolating\u2014there\u2019s no one to turn to when she needs answers. Still, she sees her intelligence as a gift, not a curse .<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This woman holds the highest recorded IQ ever: an astonishing 228. Far surpassing Einstein (160-190), Hawking (160), and Musk (155). Yet, despite her brilliance, she faced ridicule for her response to a seemingly simple problem. But she saw what no one else could. Here\u2019s her story: Marilyn Vos Savant was far from an ordinary child. … <\/p>\n

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